A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
